By Anika Priyaranjan
Illustration by Keo Morakod Ung
Before sunrise in California’s Central Valley, undocumented farmworkers are already picking fruits and vegetables that stock grocery stores nationwide. In New York City, they prepare meals in restaurant kitchens, and in Texas, they lay bricks for homes and highways. These workers form the backbone of industries that keep America running, yet their status remains a political lightning rod. While critics often frame undocumented immigrants as a drain on resources, data reveals a starkly different reality. An estimated 8.3 million undocumented individuals, nearly 5% of the U.S. workforce, fill critical roles that sustain key sectors of the economy. President Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation plans, however, risk destabilizing this fragile ecosystem, triggering economic shocks that would ripple across industries and borders.
Undocumented workers plug gaps in sectors plagued by chronic labor shortages. Agriculture relies on them heavily, with one in eight farmworkers undocumented. In California, which produces over a third of the country’s vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits, farmers warn that losing this workforce could collapse the state’s $50 billion agriculture industry. Crops would rot in fields, grocery prices would spike, and dependence on imported food would grow—raising costs for families already strained by inflation. Similarly, construction, where 14% of workers lack legal status, would face project delays, worsening the housing crisis. In hospitality, 7% of hospitality workers are undocumented, a lifeline for tourism hubs like Las Vegas and Miami. Without them, businesses might shutter, services would decline, and prices would climb, eroding the competitiveness of these destinations.
The myth that undocumented immigrants “take without giving” crumbles under scrutiny. They contributed USD 96.7 billion to federal, state and local taxes in 2022, funding programs like Medicare and Social Security they cannot access. States like Texas and Florida collect billions annually in sales and property taxes from undocumented households— revenue that funds schools, roads, and emergency services, as reported by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Their spending power also fuels local economies, pumping money into consumer markets, supporting small businesses and stabilizing housing markets in cities like Los Angeles and Houston.
America’s aging population adds urgency to their role. With 10,000 Baby Boomers retiring daily, the worker-to-retiree ratio is collapsing, threatening Social Security’s solvency. Undocumented workers, who are typically younger, help mitigate this imbalance. Their labor keeps industries operational and tax revenues flowing, delaying the fiscal time bomb of an aging society. Removing them would accelerate economic decline, leaving fewer workers to support retirees.
Expelling millions would trigger immediate crises. Agriculture could lose $60 billion annually, spiking produce prices. Mass deportation is estimated to cause the GDP to shrink by 4.2 to 6.8 percent. Labor shortages would drive wage hikes, but businesses would pass these costs to consumers, worsening inflation. The financial toll on governments would be staggering. Social Security would lose billions in payroll taxes over a decade. States would forfeit billions in revenue, gutting budgets for schools and infrastructure. History also warns of unintended consequences: After the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which criminalized hiring undocumented workers, exploitative cash jobs surged, tax revenue plummeted, and wages stagnated. A repeat today would push labor further underground, stripping worker protections and depriving governments of vital income.
The fallout wouldn’t stop at U.S. borders. The annual remittances sent by migrants, equivalent to Mexico’s $66 billion and $20 billion of Guatemala’s GDP, acts as an economic lifeline for developing nations. Cutting this flow would deepen poverty, destabilize governments, and ironically fuel more migration as families seek survival. Trade partners like Mexico and Canada would also suffer from reduced U.S. consumer demand, while agricultural shifts could cede global market share to competitors like Brazil. Diplomatically, mass deportations would strain alliances, risking retaliation through trade barriers or reduced cooperation on security.
Trump’s 2024 agenda—mass deportations, defunding sanctuary cities, mandatory E-Verify, and ending DACA—threatens chaos. The solution lies not in expulsion but integration. Pairing border security with expanded work visas and pathways to citizenship would stabilize industries, boost tax revenue, and align policy with economic reality. As Baby Boomers retire and global competition intensifies, America’s choice is clear: Vilify a workforce that sustains its economy or harness their potential to build resilience. The world is watching, and the stakes transcend politics.
UCL Rethinking Economics 